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| Inductive Reasoning Processes |
Inductive Reasoning Processes
Inductive reasoning is based on discovering patterns in repeated experiences. Once a pattern is found, a statistical analysis can be used to predict (See section 5.2.) the chances of a similar event occurring in the future. We use informal inductive reasoning every day in almost every action we take. A more formal approach to inductive reasoning provides the basis for the scientific method.
The search for patterns
The search for a pattern among observations is the central component of inductive reasoning. Sometimes a pattern is simple and clear; ‘It hurts every time I poke myself with a fork’. Sometimes patterns are difficult to find and it requires careful observations over an extended period of time. The ancient Mesopotamians and Mayans made extended observations of the Evening Star and the Morning Star before they realized that these observations were of just one object, the planet Venus, as it moved in its orbit about the Sun.
Informal inductive reasoning
We all use knowledge gained from past experiences to guide our current actions, so we all use inductive reasoning. For example, suppose you see a jug of water on the table and note its shape and distance. Then based on past experiences you decide whether you can extend your arm and pick up the jug without offending anyone else at the table and without dumping water all over the place.
Physical processes can involve several factors, so simple observations do not always provide clear insights. Historically, many processes seemed either random (day-to-day weather) or mystical (the transmission of disease) in character. For example, malachite is a green mineral that crumbles easily, but when heated by an intense fire it is somehow transformed into copper. Without any knowledge of chemistry such a transformation would remain a mystery of nature. To accommodate such magical properties and random events, rituals were often devised to accompany best practices in an effort to appeal to divine powers for assistance. When a procedure worked, apparently the rituals were effective and the gods were co-operative, when a ritual did not work either the gods were angry or there was some error in the rituals.
For example, at the festival of Beltane, Celtic peoples celebrated a number of spring rituals to rejuvenate the land and ensure fertility. Farmers leaped over bonfires and farm animals were driven between fires as they were transferred from winter pens to summer pastures. Most years the land and the people were fertile; sometimes they were not.
Formal inductive reasoning
Formal inductive reasoning is commonly known as the scientific method. The scientific method involves making systematic observations, and searching for patterns in a physical process. Typically, a specific question is asked, a series of experiments is conducted, careful observations are made, the results are analyzed, and a concluding statement is made.
Example: It seems that water always boils at the same temperature. Is that actually the case? Applying the scientific method might involve the following actions and guiding questions:
1. Boil a pot of water and measure the temperature of the water.
2. Repeat the process several times. Is the temperature always the same?
3. Would it make a difference if a different type of pot was used?
4. Would it make a difference if the experiment was conducted at different times of the day?
5. Would it make a difference if salt water was used?
6. Would it make a difference if it was raining, or if the Sun was shining?
7. Would it make a difference if the experiment was conducted at a different elevation?
8. Would it make a difference if a different thermometer was used?
Each of those questions involves a factor that might influence the measured boiling point of water. Which factors to investigate is determined by the need for accuracy.
If you just want to boil an egg, then accuracy within a degree or two is probably sufficient. If you are studying a complex chemical reaction, then accuracy within a hundredth of a degree may be required. The ‘official result’ is that distilled water, at a pressure of one atmosphere, boils at 100.0 °C. Adding impurities to water, or changing the atmospheric pressure does change the boiling point.
Not all events lend themselves to scientific investigation in the laboratory. Some events such as continental drift, earthquakes, volcanoes, and galactic supernovae are very slow, random, or infrequent events. There are no means to control any variables that might be involved. However, scientists can still study these events by designing, testing, and deploying suitable instruments for collecting data. Then when an event does occur, scientists can gather as much data as possible. Over time, data are collected from several similar events. The collected data can then be used to construct models to account for the observations, and to predict future behaviour.
Inductive reasoning is based on discovering patterns in repeated experiences. Once a pattern is found, a statistical analysis can be used to predict (See section 5.2.) the chances of a similar event occurring in the future. We use informal inductive reasoning every day in almost every action we take. A more formal approach to inductive reasoning provides the basis for the scientific method.
The search for patterns
The search for a pattern among observations is the central component of inductive reasoning. Sometimes a pattern is simple and clear; ‘It hurts every time I poke myself with a fork’. Sometimes patterns are difficult to find and it requires careful observations over an extended period of time. The ancient Mesopotamians and Mayans made extended observations of the Evening Star and the Morning Star before they realized that these observations were of just one object, the planet Venus, as it moved in its orbit about the Sun.
Informal inductive reasoning
We all use knowledge gained from past experiences to guide our current actions, so we all use inductive reasoning. For example, suppose you see a jug of water on the table and note its shape and distance. Then based on past experiences you decide whether you can extend your arm and pick up the jug without offending anyone else at the table and without dumping water all over the place.
Physical processes can involve several factors, so simple observations do not always provide clear insights. Historically, many processes seemed either random (day-to-day weather) or mystical (the transmission of disease) in character. For example, malachite is a green mineral that crumbles easily, but when heated by an intense fire it is somehow transformed into copper. Without any knowledge of chemistry such a transformation would remain a mystery of nature. To accommodate such magical properties and random events, rituals were often devised to accompany best practices in an effort to appeal to divine powers for assistance. When a procedure worked, apparently the rituals were effective and the gods were co-operative, when a ritual did not work either the gods were angry or there was some error in the rituals.
For example, at the festival of Beltane, Celtic peoples celebrated a number of spring rituals to rejuvenate the land and ensure fertility. Farmers leaped over bonfires and farm animals were driven between fires as they were transferred from winter pens to summer pastures. Most years the land and the people were fertile; sometimes they were not.
Formal inductive reasoning
Formal inductive reasoning is commonly known as the scientific method. The scientific method involves making systematic observations, and searching for patterns in a physical process. Typically, a specific question is asked, a series of experiments is conducted, careful observations are made, the results are analyzed, and a concluding statement is made.
Example: It seems that water always boils at the same temperature. Is that actually the case? Applying the scientific method might involve the following actions and guiding questions:
1. Boil a pot of water and measure the temperature of the water.
2. Repeat the process several times. Is the temperature always the same?
3. Would it make a difference if a different type of pot was used?
4. Would it make a difference if the experiment was conducted at different times of the day?
5. Would it make a difference if salt water was used?
6. Would it make a difference if it was raining, or if the Sun was shining?
7. Would it make a difference if the experiment was conducted at a different elevation?
8. Would it make a difference if a different thermometer was used?
Each of those questions involves a factor that might influence the measured boiling point of water. Which factors to investigate is determined by the need for accuracy.
If you just want to boil an egg, then accuracy within a degree or two is probably sufficient. If you are studying a complex chemical reaction, then accuracy within a hundredth of a degree may be required. The ‘official result’ is that distilled water, at a pressure of one atmosphere, boils at 100.0 °C. Adding impurities to water, or changing the atmospheric pressure does change the boiling point.
Not all events lend themselves to scientific investigation in the laboratory. Some events such as continental drift, earthquakes, volcanoes, and galactic supernovae are very slow, random, or infrequent events. There are no means to control any variables that might be involved. However, scientists can still study these events by designing, testing, and deploying suitable instruments for collecting data. Then when an event does occur, scientists can gather as much data as possible. Over time, data are collected from several similar events. The collected data can then be used to construct models to account for the observations, and to predict future behaviour.
