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| Theories |
Theories
A theory presents a simplified pattern that connects a wide range of observations.
The pattern of a theory makes related information easier to understand and provides a means to make predictions about future observations. A new observation can be used either to check an old observation, or to test the theory in a range where no other observations have been made.
A model of a theory
Joining the dots on a page to create a line drawing is an interesting child’s game. ‘Is it a dog or a canary?’ When there are only a few dots, you can draw just about any figure. The outcome becomes more obvious as the number of dots increases.
The process of joining-the-dots provides a good model for the first stages in constructing a theory. Instead of drawing a line figure to connect dots, a theory builder looks for a mathematical relationship that will connect all the known information.
Proving a theory
A theory is only useful because it helps us to make sense out of a collection of information, or a variety of observations. The best demonstration for the validity of a theory occurs when the theory is used to make predictions that are verified by later observations.
However, a theory cannot be proved true for all cases simply because you can never test all possible cases. Proving that a theory is always true is like proving your greatgrandmother was always honest. You can provide evidence for hundreds of situations in which your great-grandmother was perfectly honest, and reasonably conclude that she was a model citizen, but you cannot prove that she never, ever, told a white lie or borrowed a turnip from her neighbour’s garden without authorization.
In contrast, a theory can be disproved with a single counter example.
There are at least two styles of theories: informal and formal.
Informal theories
Informal theories are based on casual observations and intuitive analysis. We create and use informal theories all the time. For example, you might theorize that the floor in front of you will remain solid and your next footstep will not pass through it. You might theorize that since it is 8 o’clock on Tuesday night, your favourite television show should be on Channel 6 right now. Most informal theories are subject to revision when contrary evidence is encountered.
Many ancient religions embraced informal theories about the workings of the world. The capricious natures of storms, earthquakes, and volcanoes were often attributed to the fickle behaviour of human-like gods. Many ancient religions also supported the concept that a king had been chosen by the local god to rule the land as the god’s representative. The king thus assumed divine powers. Religious theories, however, were seldom open to review even when they ran into disagreement with more accurate observations of nature.
Formal theories
Formal theories are based on careful observations that have been repeated over time, and patterns are often expressed using mathematics. A formal theory is only useful because it provides a consistent structure for a growing array of observations. A formal theory is often widely published to deliberately invite criticism, testing with new observations, and additional refinements.
Making precise observations, then creating and testing theories sounds like a lot of work. It is! That is how scientists earn their living. Scientists spend years learning the appropriate background material. They design specialized equipment to make accurate and precise measurements. They expend great efforts in sifting and analyzing data in search of new patterns. The creation of a new theory can be the culmination of a lifetime’s work. It is most satisfying when a new theory unites disparate concepts, stands up to intense scrutiny, and makes predictions that are verified by new observations.
Another important property of theories
In order for a particular theory to acquire general usefulness it has to have another important property – it has to mesh with other accepted concepts, facts, and theories. Successful theories are not created in isolation. Successful theories fit into a set of mutually supportive theories, each based on the best observational evidence available.
A successful theory of nutrition has to explain which foods are best to eat, and also has to mesh with what we know about the human digestive system, the biology of living things, organic chemistry, and ecosystems on Earth. When a theory of nutrition provides a concise summary of everything we know about food, and is also consistent with related observations and concepts, then we can have confidence in the conclusions and predictions based on that theory.
The value of theories
Theories provide a framework for relating a large number of otherwise isolated facts. Theories provide a systematic approach for summarizing existing knowledge, thus making it easier to learn, understand, and apply that knowledge. Existing theories provide challenging opportunities for other investigators to seek new information that will confirm those theories, lead to revisions, or lead to whole new theories.
A well-tested theory may be one of the ultimate products of clear thinking.
A theory presents a simplified pattern that connects a wide range of observations.
The pattern of a theory makes related information easier to understand and provides a means to make predictions about future observations. A new observation can be used either to check an old observation, or to test the theory in a range where no other observations have been made.
A model of a theory
Joining the dots on a page to create a line drawing is an interesting child’s game. ‘Is it a dog or a canary?’ When there are only a few dots, you can draw just about any figure. The outcome becomes more obvious as the number of dots increases.
The process of joining-the-dots provides a good model for the first stages in constructing a theory. Instead of drawing a line figure to connect dots, a theory builder looks for a mathematical relationship that will connect all the known information.
Proving a theory
A theory is only useful because it helps us to make sense out of a collection of information, or a variety of observations. The best demonstration for the validity of a theory occurs when the theory is used to make predictions that are verified by later observations.
However, a theory cannot be proved true for all cases simply because you can never test all possible cases. Proving that a theory is always true is like proving your greatgrandmother was always honest. You can provide evidence for hundreds of situations in which your great-grandmother was perfectly honest, and reasonably conclude that she was a model citizen, but you cannot prove that she never, ever, told a white lie or borrowed a turnip from her neighbour’s garden without authorization.
In contrast, a theory can be disproved with a single counter example.
There are at least two styles of theories: informal and formal.
Informal theories
Informal theories are based on casual observations and intuitive analysis. We create and use informal theories all the time. For example, you might theorize that the floor in front of you will remain solid and your next footstep will not pass through it. You might theorize that since it is 8 o’clock on Tuesday night, your favourite television show should be on Channel 6 right now. Most informal theories are subject to revision when contrary evidence is encountered.
Many ancient religions embraced informal theories about the workings of the world. The capricious natures of storms, earthquakes, and volcanoes were often attributed to the fickle behaviour of human-like gods. Many ancient religions also supported the concept that a king had been chosen by the local god to rule the land as the god’s representative. The king thus assumed divine powers. Religious theories, however, were seldom open to review even when they ran into disagreement with more accurate observations of nature.
Formal theories
Formal theories are based on careful observations that have been repeated over time, and patterns are often expressed using mathematics. A formal theory is only useful because it provides a consistent structure for a growing array of observations. A formal theory is often widely published to deliberately invite criticism, testing with new observations, and additional refinements.
Making precise observations, then creating and testing theories sounds like a lot of work. It is! That is how scientists earn their living. Scientists spend years learning the appropriate background material. They design specialized equipment to make accurate and precise measurements. They expend great efforts in sifting and analyzing data in search of new patterns. The creation of a new theory can be the culmination of a lifetime’s work. It is most satisfying when a new theory unites disparate concepts, stands up to intense scrutiny, and makes predictions that are verified by new observations.
Another important property of theories
In order for a particular theory to acquire general usefulness it has to have another important property – it has to mesh with other accepted concepts, facts, and theories. Successful theories are not created in isolation. Successful theories fit into a set of mutually supportive theories, each based on the best observational evidence available.
A successful theory of nutrition has to explain which foods are best to eat, and also has to mesh with what we know about the human digestive system, the biology of living things, organic chemistry, and ecosystems on Earth. When a theory of nutrition provides a concise summary of everything we know about food, and is also consistent with related observations and concepts, then we can have confidence in the conclusions and predictions based on that theory.
The value of theories
Theories provide a framework for relating a large number of otherwise isolated facts. Theories provide a systematic approach for summarizing existing knowledge, thus making it easier to learn, understand, and apply that knowledge. Existing theories provide challenging opportunities for other investigators to seek new information that will confirm those theories, lead to revisions, or lead to whole new theories.
A well-tested theory may be one of the ultimate products of clear thinking.
